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The Devil in the Polling Data
The same problem that caused the 2007 financial crisis also tripped up the polling data ahead of this year’s presidential election.
Why (Almost) Everyone Was Wrong
The results of this year’s presidential election made a mockery of analytical election forecast modelers.
Solution: ‘Which Forecasts Are True?’
Aside from potential clues gleaned from a fluke result, it would take hundreds of U.S. presidential elections to definitely conclude that one election forecasting model is superior to another.
How Can We Tell Which Forecasts Are True?
Presidential election forecasts are historically successful and appear to be highly precise. Yet they’re often contradictory. What would it take to trust them?
Solution: ‘A Drunkard’s Walk in Manhattan’
City blocks help illustrate why walking randomly tends to take you away from your starting point.
A Drunkard’s Walk in Manhattan
Why is it that when you walk randomly, the more you walk, the farther you get from your starting point?
Solution: ‘A Random Place at the Table’
Try these shortcuts for solving problems that seem to require a lengthy calculation.
Why Sleeping Beauty Is Lost in Time
The famous Sleeping Beauty problem has divided probability theorists, decision theorists and philosophers for over 15 years. Puzzle columnist Pradeep Mutalik claims to have discovered the source of confusion.
Solution: ‘Sleeping Beauty’s Dilemma’
The solution to this month’s puzzle gets to the bottom of the famously ambiguous Sleeping Beauty probability problem.